2016 Hugo Nominations Organic Estimate

These tables estimate the number of "organic" (i.e. not part of an organized slate) nominations for the 2016 Hugo Awards. These numbers were computed from the 2016 Hugo Nominations Raw Data using the methods described in the Reanalysis of Slate Voting in the 2016 Hugo Nominations. In this document, we use "vote" and "nomination" interchangeably; in all cases it refers to the number of votes received in the nominating round for the Hugo Awards.

The first table summaries the numbers of votes from slates in each category.

CategoryPure Slate Votes
Rabid PuppiesSad PuppiesTotal
Best Novel3750375
Best Novella4030403
Best Novelette4000400
Best Short Story37117388
Best Related Work37335408
Best Graphic Story3361337
Best Editor, Short Form51937556
Best Editor, Long Form3750375
Best Professional Artist2400240
Best Semiprozine34955404
Best Fanzine3480348
Best Fancast3277334
Best Fanwriter3080308
Best Fan Artist3150315
John W. Campbell Award for Best New Writer35511366

By the definition of slate that we're using, a slate voter within a category voted for every candidate on a particular slate and nothing else in that category. That means someone who voted for just one or two of the slated items counts as an organic voter in that category.

Format of the Tables

The tables below are sorted by estimated organic votes, so they reflect the long list and finalists that we would have had if there had been no slates. This is somewhat conservative, since it only removes votes from perfect slates.

Type Styles

Hugo Winner
The official winner of the Hugo Award is in bold.
Finalist
Any candidate that was in the official top five (whether it deserved to be or not and whether or not it later withdrew) is in regular type. In cases or ties and withdrawals, there may be more than five.
Long List
All candidates which were not finalists are in italics.
Withdrawals
Any candidate which withdrew, declined, or was disqualfiied is struck through, provided this happened soon enough to keep it off the final ballot. Attempts to withdraw after the deadline are not marked.

Color Coding

Hostages
Blue marks candidates that were on one or more slates but which would have been finalists on the strength of their organic votes alone.
Heroes
Green indicates slate candidates who would have been finalists except that they withdrew or were disqualified in time to stay off the final ballot.
Spoilers
Orange signifies slate candidates which owed their place in the list of finalists to their slate support, displacing candidates that would have otherwise been finalists.
Toxic Spoilers
Red singles out spoilers which were later voted under No Award in the final round of voting.
Failed Spoilers
Magenta rows are slate candidates which failed to become finalists. Slate candidates which didn't even make it into the longlist are not shown at all.
Bystanders
Gray marks candidates which were not from the slates, were not finalists, and would not have been finalists even without the slates.

Names of Table Fields

Organic Votes
Estimated number of organic (non-slate) nominations the candidate received.
Organic Points
Portion of the candidate's EPH points which were due to organic votes.
Organic Deflator
Ratio of organic votes to organic points.
Pure Slate Votes
Number of votes estimated to have come from Sad or Rabid Puppies who were strictly following a slate.
EPH Points
Number of points assigned to this candidate by the EPH algorithm at the point where either the candidate was eliminated or the algorithm terminated with a list of finalists.
EPH Deflator
Ratio of the total nominations received by the candidate to the number of EPH points.

Using the Tables

Look at the top items under any given category, up to the first double horizontal line. These are the finalists that Hugo voters would have been presented with had there been no slates--assuming the estimates are correct. Anything in italics above the double line is a candidate that was pushed out by the slates. Anything in blue is a slated candidate that didn't need their help.

Now look below the first double line. Ignore things in gray italics; they wouldn't have been finalists even without the slates. Each orange or red line corresponds to a slated candidate that displaced an organic one from the top five. Pink lines are slate candidates that did no harm; they never made it to the finalist list anyway. Green items (always struck through) are nominees that would have been spoilers except that they were withdrawn.
The second double line is the limit of the organic longlist. Items below this line received so few organic votes that they wouldn't have even been in the top 15 without slate support.

Best NovelOrganicPure Slate VotesEPH
VotesPointsDeflatorRabidSadPointsDeflator
Ancillary Mercy797539.41671.477500539.41671.4775
The Fifth Season761503.33331.511900503.33331.5119
Uprooted715462.50001.545900462.50001.5459
Seveneves502343.75001.46043750531.25001.6508
Aurora325196.61671.653000196.61671.6530
The Cinder Spires: The Aeronaut's Windlass313244.00001.28283750431.50001.5944
Karen Memory273165.31671.651400165.31671.6514
The Traitor Baru Cormorant269141.66671.898800141.66671.8988
The Just City250129.56671.929500129.56671.9295
The Grace of Kings246121.38332.026600121.38332.0266
Sorcerer to the Crown235103.41672.272400103.41672.2724
Newly Listed Entry211116.35001.813500116.35001.8135
Somewhither: A Tale of the Unwithering Realm15887.08331.81443750212.08332.5132
Golden Son6942.11671.63833750135.86673.2679
Agent of the Imperium2916.73331.7331375091.73334.4041


Best NovellaOrganicPure Slate VotesEPH
VotesPointsDeflatorRabidSadPointsDeflator
Binti725577.53331.255300577.53331.2553
Penric's Demon539389.86671.38254030490.61671.9200
Slow Bullets308199.45001.54424030300.20002.3684
The Pauper Prince and the Eucalyptus Jinn307194.20001.580800194.20001.5808
Waters of Versailles227126.00001.801600126.00001.8016
The Citadel of Weeping Pearls217104.66672.073200104.66672.0732
Witches of Lychford203111.63331.818500111.63331.8185
Perfect State199122.61671.62294030223.36672.6951
Sorcerer of the Wildeeps19792.38332.13240092.38332.1324
The New Mother16984.01672.01150084.01672.0115
The Four Thousand, the Eight Hundred15973.70002.15740073.70002.1574
The Bone Swans of Amandale15963.56672.50130063.56672.5013
Rolling in the Deep14880.38331.84120080.38331.8412
The Builders8648.53331.77204030149.28333.2757
Fear of the Unknown and Self-Loathing in Hollywood3516.78332.0854403097.38334.4977


Best NoveletteOrganicPure Slate VotesEPH
VotesPointsDeflatorRabidSadPointsDeflator
And You Shall Know Her By The Trail Of Dead245183.75001.333300183.75001.3333
Our Lady of the Open Road214167.25001.279500167.25001.2795
So Much Cooking196158.66671.235300158.66671.2353
Folding Beijing176133.16671.32174000266.50002.1614
Another Word for World157123.91671.267000123.91671.2670
The Long Goodnight of Violet Wild157111.50001.408100111.50001.4081
Botanica Veneris: Thirteen Papercuts by Ida Countess Rathangan15393.81671.63080093.81671.6308
Grandmother-nai-Leylit's Cloth of Winds14497.58331.47570097.58331.4757
The Deepwater Bride11162.26671.78270062.26671.7827
Entanglements9457.53331.63380057.53331.6338
The Heart's Filthy Lesson9149.83331.82610049.83331.8261
Obits4336.50001.17814000169.83332.6084
Flashpoint: Titan4132.33331.26804000165.66672.6620
What Price Humanity?3723.51671.57344000123.51673.5380
Hyperspace Demons148.56671.6342400088.56674.6744


Best Short StoryOrganicPure Slate VotesEPH
VotesPointsDeflatorRabidSadPointsDeflator
Cat Pictures Please350310.66671.1266017316.33331.1602
Hungry Daughters of Starving Mothers236208.33331.1328017214.00001.1822
Wooden Feathers200163.33331.224500163.33331.2245
Madeleine177119.50001.481200119.50001.4812
Pocosin177111.83331.582700111.83331.5827
Today I Am Paul172129.33331.3299017133.58331.4148
Tuesdays With Molakesh the Destroyer16496.35001.702101799.75001.8145
Three Cups of Grief, by Starlight14699.33331.46980099.33331.4698
Damage12484.13331.473901787.53331.6108
Pockets10060.90001.64200060.90001.6420
Asymmetrical Warfare6455.83331.146337117247.00001.8300
Seven Kill Tiger5339.83331.33053710225.33331.8817
If You Were an Award, My Love2721.66671.24623710145.33332.7385
Space Raptor Butt Invasion1615.83331.01053710108.58333.5641
The Commuter166.80002.3529371081.00004.7778


Best Related WorkOrganicPure Slate VotesEPH
VotesPointsDeflatorRabidSadPointsDeflator
Letters to Tiptree359325.50001.102900325.50001.1029
You're Never Weird on the Internet (Almost)281264.25001.0634035275.91671.1453
Invisible 2188148.66671.264600148.66671.2646
John Scalzi Is Not A Very Popular Author And I Myself Am Quite Popular: How SJWs Always Lie About Our Comparative Popularity Levels149112.50001.324400112.50001.3244
Lois McMaster Bujold10872.83331.48280072.83331.4828
The Wheel of Time Companion10768.61671.55940068.61671.5594
Appendix N7456.58331.307837335192.58332.5028
Queers Destroy Science Fiction7045.75001.53010045.75001.5301
SJWs Always Lie6937.41671.84413730161.75002.7326
Geek Knits6848.33331.40690048.33331.4069
The Story of Moira Greyland6327.95002.25403730121.20003.5974
Sad Puppies Bite Back6035.83331.674403544.58332.1308
Safe Space as Rape Room5841.25001.406137335177.25002.6291
A History of Epic Fantasy3327.01671.221503534.01671.9990
Between Light and Shadow: An Exploration of the Fiction of Gene Wolfe, 1951 to 19861111.00001.0000373085.60004.4860


Best Graphic StoryOrganicPure Slate VotesEPH
VotesPointsDeflatorRabidSadPointsDeflator
Bitch Planet, Vol. 1: Extraordinary Machine271201.66671.343800201.66671.3438
Nimona265202.00001.311900202.00001.3119
Saga Volume 5257197.50001.301301198.50001.2997
Ms. Marvel, Vol. 2: Generation Why205139.08331.473900139.08331.4739
The Sandman: Overture184142.00001.29583360310.00001.6774
The Unbeatable Squirrel Girl Vol 1: Squirrel Power17497.33331.78770097.33331.7877
Rat Queens, Vol. 2: The Far Reaching Tentacles of N'rygoth16282.86671.95490082.86671.9549
The Sculptor15695.70001.63010095.70001.6301
The Thrilling Adventures of Lovelace and Babbage14889.06671.66170089.06671.6617
The Wicked + The Divine, Vol. 2: Fandemonium13662.55002.17430062.55002.1743
Stand Still Stay Silent - Volume 19862.81671.56010163.15001.5677
Full Frontal Nerdity4036.83331.08603360204.83331.8356
Erin Dies Alone2616.50001.57583360128.50002.8171
Invisible Republic Vol 1 (#1–5)1913.08331.4522336197.58333.6482
The Divine137.25001.7931336074.45004.6877


Best Editor, Short FormOrganicPure Slate VotesEPH
VotesPointsDeflatorRabidSadPointsDeflator
John Joseph Adams441266.00001.6579037284.50001.6801
Neil Clarke342197.16671.734600197.16671.7346
Ellen Datlow290190.50001.522300190.50001.5223
Sheila Williams257142.00001.809900142.00001.8099
C.C. Finlay203103.23331.966400103.23331.9664
Jonathan Strahan18789.58332.08740089.58332.0874
Gardner Dozois15770.46672.22800070.46672.2280
Ann Vandermeer13764.16672.13510064.16672.1351
Lynne M. Thomas and Michael Damian Thomas12776.70001.65580076.70001.6558
Mike Resnick11254.41672.05820054.41672.0582
Lynne M Thomas9961.28331.61540061.28331.6154
Liz Gorinsky8345.70001.81620045.70001.8162
Paula Goodlett5734.66671.644203747.00002.0000
Jason Rennie4823.58332.035303732.83332.5888
Jerry Pournelle2011.33331.764751937548.83331.0495


Best Editor, Long FormOrganicPure Slate VotesEPH
VotesPointsDeflatorRabidSadPointsDeflator
Toni Weisskopf426320.16671.33063750445.16671.7993
Sheila Gilbert302236.00001.279700236.00001.2797
Liz Gorinsky287235.91671.216500235.91671.2165
Anne Lesley Groell229157.05001.458100157.05001.4581
Devi Pillai204121.36671.680900121.36671.6809
David Hartwell202136.91671.475300136.91671.4753
Marco Palmieri15382.83331.84710082.83331.8471
Joe Monti14876.76671.92790076.76671.9279
Miriam Weinberg13159.31672.20850059.31672.2085
Jane Johnson12848.96672.61400048.96672.6140
Patrick Nielsen Hayden10651.13332.07300051.13332.0730
Anne Sowards9060.83331.47953750185.83332.5022
Jim Minz8651.08331.68353750176.08332.6181
Vox Day6230.75002.01633750124.50003.5100
Mike Braff2012.05001.6598375087.05004.5376


Best Professional ArtistOrganicPure Slate VotesEPH
VotesPointsDeflatorRabidSadPointsDeflator
Julie Dillon244223.83331.090100223.83331.0901
Larry Elmore18198.83331.83142400178.83332.3541
Abigail Larson15169.33332.17792400149.33332.6183
John Picacio147129.50001.135100129.50001.1351
Galen Dara147113.00001.300900113.00001.3009
Cynthia Sheppard13297.16671.35850097.16671.3585
Richard Anderson11471.78331.58810071.78331.5881
Michal Karcz11343.50002.59772400123.50002.8583
Lars Braad Andersen10027.83333.5928240087.83333.8710
Rowena Morrill7915.90004.96860015.90004.9686
John Harris7645.20001.68140045.20001.6814
Chris McGrath7350.91671.43370050.91671.4337
Kathleen Jennings6543.50001.49430043.50001.4943
Victo Ngai6540.16671.61830040.16671.6183
Larry Rostant1817.98331.0009240065.98333.9101

Because of the split Rabid Puppy slate, which resulted from a last-minute change in the Rabid Puppy slate just before nominations closed, the Best Professional Artist table is superseded by the one in 2016 Hugo Nominations Best Professional Artist.

Best SemiprozineOrganicPure Slate VotesEPH
VotesPointsDeflatorRabidSadPointsDeflator
Uncanny Magazine461313.83331.468900313.83331.4689
Strange Horizons385230.41671.67093490317.66672.3106
Beneath Ceaseless Skies283150.08331.88563490237.33332.6629
The Book Smugglers19393.00002.07530093.00002.0753
Lightspeed179104.83331.707500104.83331.7075
Interzone9446.91672.00360046.91672.0036
Daily Science Fiction8141.58331.94793490128.83333.3376
Escape Pod8047.40001.68780047.40001.6878
Fireside Magazine7634.43332.20720034.43332.2072
Giganotosaurus7426.30002.81370026.30002.8137
Clarkesworld6927.90002.47310027.90002.4731
Podcastle6525.45002.55400025.45002.5540
Newly Listed Work6429.18332.19300029.18332.1930
Abyss & Apex4923.03332.1274349092.83334.2873
Sci-Phi Journal4424.08331.827034955166.33332.6934


Best FanzineOrganicPure Slate VotesEPH
VotesPointsDeflatorRabidSadPointsDeflator
File 770679630.66671.07663480700.26671.4666
Lady Business12586.33331.44790086.33331.4479
Black Gate11363.25001.78663480132.85003.4701
Journey Planet10872.00001.50000072.00001.5000
A Dribble of Ink8541.58332.04410041.58332.0441
Rocket Stack Rank6633.48331.97110033.48331.9711
SF Signal6431.06672.06010031.06672.0601
Nerds of a feather, flock together6026.86672.23330026.86672.2333
Mad Genius Club5827.13332.13760027.13332.1376
Superversive SF5638.83331.44213480108.43333.7258
Castalia House blog5028.00001.7857348097.60004.0779
Tangent Online4829.25001.6410348098.85004.0061
Banana Wings4526.86671.67490026.86671.6749
Mark Watches4019.86672.01340019.86672.0134
SF Mistressworks4015.08332.65190015.08332.6519


Best FancastOrganicPure Slate VotesEPH
VotesPointsDeflatorRabidSadPointsDeflator
Tea and Jeopardy205170.25001.204107173.75001.2201
Galactic Suburbia135108.66671.242300108.66671.2423
Verity!10279.00001.29110079.00001.2911
The Skiffy and Fanty Show9159.91671.51880059.91671.5188
Fangirl Happy Hour8954.61671.62950054.61671.6295
Ditch Diggers8464.41671.30400064.41671.3040
The Coode Street Podcast8348.26671.71960048.26671.7196
Sword and Laser7556.58331.32550056.58331.3255
Starship Sofa6746.43331.44290046.43331.4429
Coode Street Podcast6649.03331.34600049.03331.3460
Hello Greedo3014.25002.10533277126.75002.8718
The Rageaholic2817.08331.63903270126.08332.8156
Cane and Rinse124.75002.52633270113.75002.9802
8-4 Play93.03332.9670327084.78333.9630
Tales to Terrify32.65001.1321327068.05004.8494


Best FanwriterOrganicPure Slate VotesEPH
VotesPointsDeflatorRabidSadPointsDeflator
Mike Glyer243187.33331.297200187.33331.2972
Alexandra Erin213161.33331.320200161.33331.3202
Natalie Luhrs182142.83331.274200142.83331.2742
Mark Oshiro161122.33331.316100122.33331.3161
Eric Flint14293.33331.52140093.33331.5214
Abigail Nussbaum14198.00001.43880098.00001.4388
Jeffro Johnson119100.00001.19003080254.00001.6811
George R.R. Martin10355.35001.86090055.35001.8609
Foz Meadows10352.91671.94650052.91671.9465
Liz Bourke9849.21671.99120049.21671.9912
James Nicoll8747.10001.84710047.10001.8471
Morgan Holmes3419.50001.74363080173.50001.9712
Shamus Young3115.16672.04403080117.83332.8769
Zenopus247.50003.2000308084.50003.9290
Douglas Ernst32.23331.3433308063.83334.8721


Best Fan ArtistOrganicPure Slate VotesEPH
VotesPointsDeflatorRabidSadPointsDeflator
Steve Stiles8887.50001.00570087.50001.0057
Matthew Callahan6140.25001.51553150119.00003.1597
Megan Lara6059.50001.00840059.50001.0084
Karezoid5724.58332.31860024.58332.3186
Likhain5553.50001.02800053.50001.0280
Richard Man4239.83331.05440039.83331.0544
Brad W. Foster4229.00001.44830029.00001.4483
Euclase3829.16671.30290029.16671.3029
Spring Schoenhuth3725.83331.43230025.83331.4323
Ninni Aalto3228.66671.11630028.66671.1163
Rgus2712.08332.2345315090.83333.7651
Christian Quinot269.91672.6218315088.66673.8459
Newly Listed Entry2524.00001.04170024.00001.0417
disse86237.25003.1724315086.00003.9302
Kukuruyo66.00001.0000315069.00004.6522


John W. Campbell Award for Best New WriterOrganicPure Slate VotesEPH
VotesPointsDeflatorRabidSadPointsDeflator
Andy Weir680538.86671.261935511659.95001.5850
Alyssa Wong445355.70001.2511011358.45001.2721
Becky Chambers236150.20001.5712011152.95001.6149
Kelly Robson214126.50001.691700126.50001.6917
Sunil Patel197116.86671.685700116.86671.6857
Isabel Yap12451.03332.42980051.03332.4298
S. L. Huang11662.06671.86900062.06671.8690
Natasha Pulley11356.48332.000601158.68332.1130
Scott Hawkins9850.18331.952801152.38332.0808
Rachael K. Jones6427.95002.28980027.95002.2898
Ilana C. Myer6128.98332.10470028.98332.1047
Brian Niemeier4630.20001.523235511151.28332.7234
Pierce Brown4630.03331.53163550148.36672.7028
Sebastien de Castell2720.13331.341135511111.08333.5379
Cheah Kai Wai199.10002.0879355080.10004.6692


October 04, 2016

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