RSR 2016 Hugo Nominations Best Professional Artist

This table updates the one in the 2016 Hugo Nominations Organic Estimate to reflect the split Rabid Puppy slate which resulted from a last-minute change in the slate just before nominations closed.

Format of the Table

The table below is sorted by estimated organic votes, so it reflects the long list and finalists that we would have had if there had been no slates. This is somewhat conservative, since it only removes votes from perfect slates.

Type Styles

Hugo Winner: The official winner of the Hugo Award is in bold.
Finalist: Any candidate that was in the official top five (whether it deserved to be or not and whether or not it later withdrew) is in regular type. In cases or ties and withdrawals, there may be more than five.
Long List: All candidates which were not finalists are in italics.
Withdrawals: Any candidate which withdrew, declined, or was disqualfiied is struck through, provided this happened soon enough to keep it off the final ballot. Attempts to withdraw after the deadline are not marked.

Color Coding

Hostages: Blue marks candidates that were on one or more slates but which would have been finalists on the strength of their organic votes alone.
Heroes: Green indicates slate candidates who would have been finalists except that they withdrew or were disqualified in time to stay off the final ballot.
Spoilers: Orange signifies slate candidates which owed their place in the list of finalists to their slate support, displacing candidates that would have otherwise been finalists.
Toxic Spoilers: Red singles out spoilers which were later voted under No Award in the final round of voting.
Failed Spoilers: Magenta rows are slate candidates which failed to become finalists. Slate candidates which didn't even make it into the longlist are not shown at all.
Bystanders: Gray marks candidates which were not from the slates, were not finalists, and would not have been finalists even without the slates.

Names of Table Fields

Organic Votes: Estimated number of organic (non-slate) nominations the candidate received.
Organic Points: Portion of the candidate's EPH points which were due to organic votes.
Organic Deflator: Ratio of organic votes to organic points.
Pure Slate Votes: Number of votes estimated to have come from Sad or Rabid Puppies who were strictly following a slate.
EPH Points: Number of points assigned to this candidate by the EPH algorithm at the point where either the candidate was eliminated or the algorithm terminated with a list of finalists.
EPH Deflator: Ratio of the total nominations received by the candidate to the number of EPH points.

Using the Table

Look at the top items under any given category, up to the first double horizontal line. These are the finalists that Hugo voters would have been presented with had there been no slates--assuming the estimates are correct. Anything in italics above the double line is a candidate that was pushed out by the slates. Anything in blue is a slated candidate that didn't need their help.

Now look below the first double line. Ignore things in gray italics; they wouldn't have been finalists even without the slates. Each orange or red line corresponds to a slated candidate that displaced an organic one from the top five. Pink lines are slate candidates that did no harm; they never made it to the finalist list anyway. Green items (always struck through) are nominees that would have been spoilers except that they were withdrawn.

The second double line is the limit of the organic longlist. Items below this line received so few organic votes that they wouldn't have even been in the top 15 without slate support.

Best Professional Artist	Organic			Pure Slate Votes		EPH
Best Professional Artist	Votes	Points	Deflator	New	Old	Points	Deflator
Julie Dillon	244	223.8333	1.0901	0	0	223.8333	1.0901
John Picacio	147	129.5000	1.1351	0	0	129.5000	1.1351
Galen Dara	147	113.0000	1.3009	0	0	113.0000	1.3009
Cynthia Sheppard	132	97.1667	1.3585	0	0	97.1667	1.3585
Richard Anderson	114	71.7833	1.5881	0	0	71.7833	1.5881
Larry Elmore	103	72.8333	1.4142	240	78	178.8333	2.3541
John Harris	76	45.2000	1.6814	0	0	45.2000	1.6814
Abigail Larson	73	43.3333	1.6846	240	78	149.3333	2.6183
Chris McGrath	73	50.9167	1.4337	0	0	50.9167	1.4337
Kathleen Jennings	65	43.5000	1.4943	0	0	43.5000	1.4943
Victo Ngai	65	40.1667	1.6183	0	0	40.1667	1.6183
Michal Karcz	35	17.5000	2.0000	240	78	123.5000	2.8583
Lars Braad Andersen	22	8.3333	2.6400	240	78	87.8333	3.8710
Larry Rostant	18	17.9833	1.0009	240	0	65.9833	3.9101
Rowena Morrill	1	0.3000	3.3333	0	78	15.9000	4.9686