2015 Hugo Nominations Organic Estimate

These tables estimate the number of "organic" (i.e. not part of an organized slate) nominations for the 2015 Hugo Awards. These numbers were computed from the 2015 Hugo Nominations Raw Data using the methods described in the Reanalysis of Slate Voting in the 2016 Hugo Nominations. In this document, we use "vote" and "nomination" interchangeably; in all cases it refers to the number of votes received in the nominating round for the Hugo Awards.

The first table summaries the numbers of votes from slates in each category.

CategoryPure Slate Votes
Rabid PuppiesSad PuppiesTotal
Best Novel142112254
Best Novella141113254
Best Novelette14589234
Best Short Story9866164
Best Related Work1950195
Best Graphic Story1880188
Best Editor, Short Form12271193
Best Editor, Long Form13290222
Best Professional Artist10950159
Best Semiprozine12491215
Best Fanzine10239141
Best Fancast1420142
Best Fanwriter6579144
Best Fan Artist000
John W. Campbell Award for Best New Writer12443167

By the definition of slate that we're using, a slate voter within a category voted for every candidate on a particular slate and nothing else in that category. That means someone who voted for just one or two of the slated items counts as an organic voter in that category.

Format of the Tables

The tables below are sorted by estimated organic votes, so they reflect the long list and finalists that we would have had if there had been no slates. This is somewhat conservative, since it only removes votes from perfect slates.

Type Styles

Hugo Winner
The official winner of the Hugo Award is in bold.
Finalist
Any candidate that was in the official top five (whether it deserved to be or not and whether or not it later withdrew) is in regular type. In cases or ties and withdrawals, there may be more than five.
Long List
All candidates which were not finalists are in italics.
Withdrawals
Any candidate which withdrew, declined, or was disqualfiied is struck through, provided this happened soon enough to keep it off the final ballot. Attempts to withdraw after the deadline are not marked.

Color Coding

Hostages
Blue marks candidates that were on one or more slates but which would have been finalists on the strength of their organic votes alone.
Heroes
Green indicates slate candidates who would have been finalists except that they withdrew or were disqualified in time to stay off the final ballot.
Spoilers
Orange signifies slate candidates which owed their place in the list of finalists to their slate support, displacing candidates that would have otherwise been finalists.
Toxic Spoilers
Red singles out spoilers which were later voted under No Award in the final round of voting.
Failed Spoilers
Magenta rows are slate candidates which failed to become finalists. Slate candidates which didn't even make it into the longlist are not shown at all.
Bystanders
Gray marks candidates which were not from the slates, were not finalists, and would not have been finalists even without the slates.

Names of Table Fields

Organic Votes
Estimated number of organic (non-slate) nominations the candidate received.
Organic Points
Portion of the candidate's EPH points which were due to organic votes.
Organic Deflator
Ratio of organic votes to organic points.
Pure Slate Votes
Number of votes estimated to have come from Sad or Rabid Puppies who were strictly following a slate.
EPH Points
Number of points assigned to this candidate by the EPH algorithm at the point where either the candidate was eliminated or the algorithm terminated with a list of finalists.
EPH Deflator
Ratio of the total nominations received by the candidate to the number of EPH points.

Using the Tables

Look at the top items under any given category, up to the first double horizontal line. These are the finalists that Hugo voters would have been presented with had there been no slates--assuming the estimates are correct. Anything in italics above the double line is a candidate that was pushed out by the slates. Anything in blue is a slated candidate that didn't need their help.

Now look below the first double line. Ignore things in gray italics; they wouldn't have been finalists even without the slates. Each orange or red line corresponds to a slated candidate that displaced an organic one from the top five. Pink lines are slate candidates that did no harm; they never made it to the finalist list anyway. Green items (always struck through) are nominees that would have been spoilers except that they were withdrawn.
The second double line is the limit of the organic longlist. Items below this line received so few organic votes that they wouldn't have even been in the top 15 without slate support.

Best NovelOrganicPure Slate VotesEPH
VotesPointsDeflatorRabidSadPointsDeflator
Ancillary Sword279221.66671.258600221.66671.2586
The Goblin Emperor256194.66671.315100194.66671.3151
The Three-Body Problem210174.00001.206900174.00001.2069
Lock In168116.50001.442100116.50001.4421
City of Stairs160101.00001.584200101.00001.5842
The Martian14195.41671.47770095.41671.4777
Skin Game13392.00001.4457142112219.00001.7671
Words of Radiance12671.08331.77260071.08331.7726
My Real Children12066.28331.81040066.28331.8104
Monster Hunter Nemesis11882.66671.4274142112209.66671.7742
The Mirror Empire11252.56672.13060052.56672.1306
Lagoon9250.48331.82240050.48331.8224
Trial by Fire8737.53332.3179011259.93333.3204
Newly Listed Work8448.78331.72190048.78331.7219
The Chaplain's War5423.11672.3360142051.51673.8046
Lines of Departure1611.66671.371414211296.33332.8028
The Dark Between the Stars98.70001.034514211272.20003.6427


Best NovellaOrganicPure Slate VotesEPH
VotesPointsDeflatorRabidSadPointsDeflator
The Slow Regard of Silent Things124118.08331.050100118.08331.0501
!! The Regular10499.50001.04520099.50001.0452
Yesterday's Kin10383.16671.23850083.16671.2385
Grand Jete (The Great Leap)9570.91671.33960070.91671.3396
Big Boys Don't Cry8452.25001.6077141113136.91672.4687
One Bright Star to Guide Them8350.75001.6355141113135.41672.4886
The Mothers of Voorhisville8335.00002.37140035.00002.3714
We Are All Completely Fine8047.78331.67420047.78331.6742
Unlocked: An Oral History of Haden's Syndrome7858.08331.34290058.08331.3429
Dream Houses7045.36671.54300045.36671.5430
Where the Trains Turn6951.78331.33250051.78331.3325
Legion: Skin Deep5033.23331.50450033.23331.5045
Flow3825.41671.4951141113110.08332.6525
The Plural of Helen of Troy3111.00002.8182141046.25003.7189
Pale Realms of Shade43.31671.2060141031.51674.6007


Best NoveletteOrganicPure Slate VotesEPH
VotesPointsDeflatorRabidSadPointsDeflator
The Day the World Turned Upside Down7272.00001.00000072.00001.0000
Each to Each6968.00001.01470068.00001.0147
The Devil In America6562.50001.04000062.50001.0400
The Magician and Laplace's Demon5447.03331.14810047.03331.1481
The Litany of Earth5440.53331.33220040.53331.3322
A Year and a Day in Old Theradane4637.91671.21320037.91671.2132
The Bonedrake's Penance4334.41671.24940034.41671.2494
Spring Festival: Happiness, Anger, Love, Sorrow, Joy4227.66671.51810027.66671.5181
We Are the Cloud4225.58331.64170025.58331.6417
A Guide to the Fruits of Hawai'i3828.50001.33330028.50001.3333
Championship B'tok3325.58331.28991458984.08333.1754
Ashes to Ashes, Dust to Dust, Earth to Alluvium3227.41671.16721458985.91673.0960
The Journeyman: In the Stone House2519.75001.26581458978.25003.3099
Yes, Virginia, There is a Santa Claus2016.08331.2435145045.08333.6599
The Triple Sun: A Golden Age Tale1411.25001.24441458969.75003.5556


Best Short StoryOrganicPure Slate VotesEPH
VotesPointsDeflatorRabidSadPointsDeflator
Tuesdays With Molakesh the Destroyer11964.83331.835506681.33332.2746
Jackalope Wives7675.33331.00880075.33331.0088
The Breath of War7368.50001.06570068.50001.0657
Goodnight Stars6633.66671.9604986682.83332.7767
A Single Samurai6629.63332.227206642.83333.0817
Turncoat6434.46671.856998058.96672.7473
Totaled6233.16671.8693986682.33332.7449
The Parliament of Beasts and Birds5325.36672.089498044.96673.3580
The Truth About Owls4843.33331.10770043.33331.1077
When it Ends, He Catches Her4432.66671.34690032.66671.3469
A Kiss With Teeth4132.83331.24870032.83331.2487
Covenant3929.50001.32200029.50001.3220
Toad Words3830.33331.25270030.33331.2527
Makeisha In Time3624.25001.48450024.25001.4845
The Vaporization Enthalpy of a Peculiar Pakistani Family3326.91671.22600026.91671.2260
This Chance Planet3322.50001.46670022.50001.4667
On A Spiritual Plain1919.00001.0000986668.16672.6846


Best Related WorkOrganicPure Slate VotesEPH
VotesPointsDeflatorRabidSadPointsDeflator
What Makes This Book so Great105102.83331.021100102.83331.0211
Chicks Dig Gaming9289.83331.02410089.83331.0241
Shadows Beneath: The Writing Excuses Anthology8374.41671.11530074.41671.1153
Invisible: Personal Essays on Representation in SF/F.7958.16671.35820058.16671.3582
Transhuman and Subhuman: Essays on Science Fiction and Awful Truth7848.16671.61941950113.16672.4124
Tropes vs Women: Women as Background Decoration7772.16671.06700072.16671.0670
Why Science is Never Settled6944.16671.56231950109.16672.4183
Robert A. Heinlein: In Dialogue with His Century, Volume 2: The Man Who Learned Better: 1948-19886243.73331.41770043.73331.4177
The Hot Equations: Thermodynamics and Military SF5933.00001.7879195098.00002.5918
The Secret History of Wonder Woman4835.83331.33950035.83331.3395
Speculative Fiction 2013: The Year's Best Online Reviews, Essays and Commentary4327.90001.54120027.90001.5412
Greg Egan (Modern Masters of Science Fiction)4228.66671.46510028.66671.4651
Wisdom from my Internet4122.58331.8155195071.33333.3084
Newly Listed Work3529.41671.18980029.41671.1898
Letters from Gardner1110.23331.0749195049.23334.1842


Best Graphic StoryOrganicPure Slate VotesEPH
VotesPointsDeflatorRabidSadPointsDeflator
Ms. Marvel Vol 1: No Normal145111.83331.296600111.83331.2966
Saga 311082.16671.33870082.16671.3387
Rat Queens Volume 1: Sass and Sorcery6444.00001.45450044.00001.4545
Sex Criminals, Vol. 1: One Weird Trick6032.33331.85570032.33331.8557
Saga 45934.91671.68970034.91671.6897
Schlock Mercenary: Broken Wind5145.66671.11680045.66671.1168
The Wicked & The Divine Vol 1: The Faust Act3720.70001.78740020.70001.7874
Through the Woods3317.81671.85220017.81671.8522
Girl Genius and Beast of the Rails2920.66671.40320020.66671.4032
Order of the Stick: Blood Runs In The Family2816.03331.74640016.03331.7464
Nimona2812.68332.20760012.68332.2076
Saga2625.00001.04000025.00001.0400
Sing No Evil2320.83331.10400020.83331.1040
Newly Listed Work2217.16671.28160017.16671.2816
Reduce Reuse Reanimate139.33331.39291880197.33331.0186


Best Editor, Short FormOrganicPure Slate VotesEPH
VotesPointsDeflatorRabidSadPointsDeflator
John Joseph Adams149116.83331.275300116.83331.2753
Neil Clarke133104.33331.274800104.33331.2748
Ellen Datlow10875.16671.43680075.16671.4368
Jonathan Strahan10166.25001.52450066.25001.5245
Sheila Williams9553.08331.78960053.08331.7896
Mike Resnick8666.16671.299712271130.50002.1379
Ann Vandermeer7042.26671.65620042.26671.6562
William Schafer5727.51672.07150027.51672.0715
Christie Yant4427.40001.60580027.40001.6058
Jennifer Brozek4331.83331.35081227196.16672.4541
Gardner Dozois4324.66671.74320024.66671.7432
Lynne M. Thomas4322.55001.90690022.55001.9069
Vox Day4025.95001.5414122050.35003.2175
Edmund R. Schubert3521.83331.60311227186.16672.6460
Bryan Thomas Schmidt2413.41671.78881227161.66673.5189


Best Editor, Long FormOrganicPure Slate VotesEPH
VotesPointsDeflatorRabidSadPointsDeflator
Toni Weisskopf146107.08331.363413290162.58332.2635
Liz Gorinsky9684.66671.13390084.66671.1339
Sheila Gilbert7059.25001.181413290114.75002.5447
Beth Meacham6948.83331.41300048.83331.4130
Patrick Nielsen Hayden6539.16671.65960039.16671.6596
Jim Minz5428.08331.92281329083.58333.3021
Lee Harris3519.75001.77220019.75001.7722
Vox Day3421.75001.5632132048.15003.4476
Devi Pillai3118.00001.72220018.00001.7222
Jenni Hill3115.90001.94970015.90001.9497
Anne Perry3113.81672.24370013.81672.2437
David Hartwell2716.45001.64130016.45001.6413
Gillian Redfearn2421.83331.09920021.83331.0992
Marco Palmieri2411.50002.08700011.50002.0870
Anne Sowards169.91671.61341329065.41673.6382


Best Professional ArtistOrganicPure Slate VotesEPH
VotesPointsDeflatorRabidSadPointsDeflator
Julie Dillon136121.00001.124000121.00001.1240
John Picacio9782.00001.18290082.00001.1829
Galen Dara6845.33331.50000045.33331.5000
Stephan Martiniere6540.08331.62160040.08331.6216
Chris McGrath4636.00001.27780036.00001.2778
Fiona Staples4531.25001.44000031.25001.4400
Dan Dos Santos4525.23331.78340025.23331.7834
John Harris3825.03331.51800025.03331.5180
Donato Giancola3620.08331.79250020.08331.7925
Alan Pollack2921.00001.38101095074.00002.5405
Bob Eggleton2719.00001.42110019.00001.4211
Nick Greenwood2214.50001.51721095067.50002.6815
Carter Reid149.50001.47371095062.50002.7680
Kirk DouPounce96.51671.3811109028.31674.1672
Jon Eno11.00001.00001095040.75003.9264


Best SemiprozineOrganicPure Slate VotesEPH
VotesPointsDeflatorRabidSadPointsDeflator
Lightspeed Magazine159104.16671.526400104.16671.5264
Strange Horizons152103.16671.473300103.16671.4733
Beneath Ceaseless Skies9453.16671.76800053.16671.7680
The Book Smugglers8449.33331.70270049.33331.7027
Interzone4928.50001.71930028.50001.7193
Pornokitsch3916.51672.36130016.51672.3613
Clarkesworld Magazine3821.06671.80380021.06671.8038
Apex Magazine3819.31671.96720019.31671.9672
Goblin Fruit3014.75002.03390014.75002.0339
Apex3014.06672.13270014.06672.1327
Crossed Genres2913.20002.19700013.20002.1970
Sci Phi Journal2912.58332.30460012.58332.3046
Escape Pod2611.70002.22220011.70002.2222
Abyss & Apex2014.50001.379309160.00001.8500
Orson Scott Card's Intergalactic Medicine Show148.00001.750012491177.50001.2901
Andromeda Spaceways In-Flight Magazine94.50002.000009134.83332.8708


Best FanzineOrganicPure Slate VotesEPH
VotesPointsDeflatorRabidSadPointsDeflator
Journey Planet6868.00001.00000068.00001.0000
Elitist Book Reviews6742.16671.58891023980.66672.5785
The Drink Tank5432.00001.68750032.00001.6875
Lady Business5149.00001.04080049.00001.0408
File 7705032.00001.56250032.00001.5625
The Revenge of Hump Day4624.33331.89041023962.83332.9761
A Dribble of Ink4634.66671.32690034.66671.3269
Tangent SF Online4019.83332.01681023958.33333.1029
Banana Wings3921.95001.77680021.95001.7768
SF Signal3220.15001.58810020.15001.5881
Nerds of a Feather2914.50002.00000014.50002.0000
SF Mistressworks2516.53331.51210016.53331.5121
Shiny Book Review245.96674.0223005.96674.0223
Argentus2113.80001.52170013.80001.5217
Black Gate1710.66671.5938102036.16673.2903


Best FancastOrganicPure Slate VotesEPH
VotesPointsDeflatorRabidSadPointsDeflator
Galactic Suburbia8069.50001.15110069.50001.1511
Tea and Jeapardy6957.25001.20520057.25001.2052
The Coode Street Podcast6852.58331.29320052.58331.2932
Verity!6648.75001.35380048.75001.3538
The Skiffy and Fanty Show6038.58331.55510038.58331.5551
Sword and Laser4535.25001.27660035.25001.2766
The Writer and the Critic4118.53332.21220018.53332.2122
The Sci Phi Show3729.58331.2507142076.91672.3272
Speculate! The Podcast for Writers, Readers and Fans3425.28331.34480025.28331.3448
PodCastle3327.83331.18560027.83331.1856
Welcome to Nightvale2816.41671.70560016.41671.7056
Adventures in SF Publishing2719.58331.3787142066.91672.5255
Nerdvana Podcast2622.75001.14290022.75001.1429
Rocket Talk2616.25001.60000016.25001.6000
Dungeon Crawlers Radio1610.08331.5868142057.41672.7518


Best FanwriterOrganicPure Slate VotesEPH
VotesPointsDeflatorRabidSadPointsDeflator
Laura J. Mixon129124.00001.040300124.00001.0403
Abigail Nussbaum8984.50001.05330084.50001.0533
Liz Bourke7845.33331.72060045.33331.7206
Natalie Luhrs7656.16671.35310056.16671.3531
Mark Oshiro6959.33331.16290059.33331.1629
Foz Meadows6131.41671.94160031.41671.9416
Cedar Sanderson5744.50001.2809657992.50002.1730
Dave Freer5325.80002.054307941.60003.1731
Dierdre Saoirse Moen5035.25001.41840035.25001.4184
James Nicoll4024.28331.64720024.28331.6472
Chris Garcia3726.86671.37720026.86671.3772
Amanda S Green3118.50001.6757657966.50002.6316
Jeffro Johnson1211.50001.0435657959.50002.6218
Matthew David Surridge64.75001.2632657940.75003.6810
Daniel Enness10.38332.608765013.38334.9315


Best Fan ArtistOrganicPure Slate VotesEPH
VotesPointsDeflatorRabidSadPointsDeflator
Steve Stiles4841.00001.17070041.00001.1707
Brad Foster2918.50001.56760018.50001.5676
Ninni Aalto2827.50001.01820027.50001.0182
Spring Schoenhuth2620.50001.26830020.50001.2683
Elizabeth Leggett2321.50001.06980021.50001.0698
Maurine Starkey2014.50001.37930014.50001.3793
Autun Parser1615.50001.03230015.50001.0323
Taral Wayne1611.33331.41180011.33331.4118
Mandie Manzano169.33331.7143009.33331.7143
Sarah Webb1513.08331.14650013.08331.1465
Euclase148.58331.6311008.58331.6311
Kuldar Leement146.83332.0488006.83332.0488
Alice X. Zhang1310.50001.23810010.50001.2381
Richard Mann106.83331.4634006.83331.4634
Vesa LehtimΓ€ki105.25001.9048005.25001.9048


John W. Campbell Award for Best New WriterOrganicPure Slate VotesEPH
VotesPointsDeflatorRabidSadPointsDeflator
Wesley Chu106105.25001.007100105.25001.0071
Andy Weir9553.30001.78240053.30001.7824
Alyssa Wong8068.50001.16790068.50001.1679
Jason Cordova6237.08331.67191244382.41672.7786
Carmen Maria Marchado6147.50001.28420047.50001.2842
Kary English5736.08331.57971244381.41672.7513
Django Wexler5536.66671.50000036.66671.5000
Usman T. Malik5433.25001.62410033.25001.6241
Eric S. Raymond5234.08331.52571244379.41672.7576
Sam J. Miller5125.91671.96780025.91671.9678
Isabel Yap4620.48332.24570020.48332.2457
Brian McClellan4426.75001.64490026.75001.6449
Helene Wecker3620.58331.74900020.58331.7490
Newly Listed Nominee2521.16671.18110021.16671.1811
Rolf Nelson1912.50001.5200124043.50003.2874


October 04, 2016

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