2014 Hugo Nominations Organic Estimate

These tables estimate the number of "organic" (i.e. not part of an organized slate) nominations for the 2014 Hugo Awards. These numbers were computed from the 2014 Hugo Nominations Raw Data using the methods described in the Reanalysis of Slate Voting in the 2016 Hugo Nominations. In this document, we use "vote" and "nomination" interchangeably; in all cases it refers to the number of votes received in the nominating round for the Hugo Awards.

The first table summaries the numbers of votes from slates in each category.

CategoryPure Slate Votes
Rabid PuppiesSad PuppiesTotal
Best Novel08585
Best Novella05757
Best Novelette03939
Best Short Story000
Best Related Work000
Best Graphic Story05959
Best Editor, Short Form07777
Best Editor, Long Form0150150
Best Professional Artist000
Best Semiprozine000
Best Fanzine0100100
Best Fancast000
Best Fanwriter000
Best Fan Artist000
John W. Campbell Award for Best New Writer05353

By the definition of slate that we're using, a slate voter within a category voted for every candidate on a particular slate and nothing else in that category. That means someone who voted for just one or two of the slated items counts as an organic voter in that category.

Format of the Tables

The tables below are sorted by estimated organic votes, so they reflect the long list and finalists that we would have had if there had been no slates. This is somewhat conservative, since it only removes votes from perfect slates.

Type Styles

Hugo Winner
The official winner of the Hugo Award is in bold.
Any candidate that was in the official top five (whether it deserved to be or not and whether or not it later withdrew) is in regular type. In cases or ties and withdrawals, there may be more than five.
Long List
All candidates which were not finalists are in italics.
Any candidate which withdrew, declined, or was disqualfiied is struck through, provided this happened soon enough to keep it off the final ballot. Attempts to withdraw after the deadline are not marked.

Color Coding

Blue marks candidates that were on one or more slates but which would have been finalists on the strength of their organic votes alone.
Green indicates slate candidates who would have been finalists except that they withdrew or were disqualified in time to stay off the final ballot.
Orange signifies slate candidates which owed their place in the list of finalists to their slate support, displacing candidates that would have otherwise been finalists.
Toxic Spoilers
Red singles out spoilers which were later voted under No Award in the final round of voting.
Failed Spoilers
Magenta rows are slate candidates which failed to become finalists. Slate candidates which didn't even make it into the longlist are not shown at all.
Gray marks candidates which were not from the slates, were not finalists, and would not have been finalists even without the slates.

Names of Table Fields

Organic Votes
Estimated number of organic (non-slate) nominations the candidate received.
Organic Points
Portion of the candidate's EPH points which were due to organic votes.
Organic Deflator
Ratio of organic votes to organic points.
Pure Slate Votes
Number of votes estimated to have come from Sad or Rabid Puppies who were strictly following a slate.
EPH Points
Number of points assigned to this candidate by the EPH algorithm at the point where either the candidate was eliminated or the algorithm terminated with a list of finalists.
EPH Deflator
Ratio of the total nominations received by the candidate to the number of EPH points.

Using the Tables

Look at the top items under any given category, up to the first double horizontal line. These are the finalists that Hugo voters would have been presented with had there been no slates--assuming the estimates are correct. Anything in italics above the double line is a candidate that was pushed out by the slates. Anything in blue is a slated candidate that didn't need their help.

Now look below the first double line. Ignore things in gray italics; they wouldn't have been finalists even without the slates. Each orange or red line corresponds to a slated candidate that displaced an organic one from the top five. Pink lines are slate candidates that did no harm; they never made it to the finalist list anyway. Green items (always struck through) are nominees that would have been spoilers except that they were withdrawn.
The second double line is the limit of the organic longlist. Items below this line received so few organic votes that they wouldn't have even been in the top 15 without slate support.

Best NovelOrganicPure Slate VotesEPH
Ancillary Justice368303.83331.211200303.83331.2112
The Ocean at the End of the Lane218163.16671.336100163.16671.3361
The Wheel of Time Series160130.66671.224500130.66671.2245
Neptune's Brood12089.66671.33830089.66671.3383
The Shining Girls9665.16671.47310065.16671.4731
A Stranger in Olondria9259.50001.54620059.50001.5462
The Golem and the Djinni8445.20001.85840045.20001.8584
The Republic of Thieves8151.16671.58310051.16671.5831
London Falling7043.25001.61850043.25001.6185
Abaddon's Gate6938.53331.79070038.53331.7907
Newly Listed Work5436.08331.49650036.08331.4965
A Few Good Men62.50002.400008545.00002.0222

Best NovellaOrganicPure Slate VotesEPH
Six-Gun Snow White143124.16671.151700124.16671.1517
Wakulla Springs8666.33331.29650066.33331.2965
How Green This Land, How Blue This Sea6351.33331.22730051.33331.2273
Burning Girls5836.16671.60370036.16671.6037
Shadows for Silence in the Forests of Hell5747.08331.21060047.08331.2106
The Princess and the Queen5542.78331.28550042.78331.2855
The Chaplain's Legacy5439.33331.372905767.83331.6364
Hook Agonistes5029.08331.71920029.08331.7192
The Butcher of Khardov4936.33331.348605764.83331.6350
The Weight of the Sunrise4933.95001.44330033.95001.4433
Iseul's Lexicon4831.76671.51100031.76671.5110
Pittsburgh Backyard and Garden3118.66671.66070018.66671.6607
Newly Listed Work2620.66671.25810020.66671.2581

Best NoveletteOrganicPure Slate VotesEPH
Lady Astronaut of Mars118108.50001.087600108.50001.0876
The Waiting Stars7969.50001.13670069.50001.1367
The Truth of Fact, the Truth of Feeling7567.50001.11110067.50001.1111
The Exchange Officers5341.00001.292703960.50001.5207
The Litigation Master and the Monkey King4937.58331.30380037.58331.3038
Forbid the Sea3935.83331.08840035.83331.0884
Boat in Shadows, Crossing3523.03331.51950023.03331.5195
Bad Dream Girl3520.83331.68000020.83331.6800
Opera Vita Aeterna3018.50001.621603938.00001.8158
Pearl Rehabilitative Colony for Ungrateful Daughters2621.16671.22830021.16671.2283
A Hollow Play2614.58331.78290014.58331.7829
Daughter of the Midway, the Mermaid, and the Open, Lonely Sea269.58332.7130009.58332.7130
The Queen of the Night's Aria2518.41671.35750018.41671.3575
Newly Listed Work2015.50001.29030015.50001.2903

Best Short StoryOrganicPure Slate VotesEPH
Selkie Stories are for Losers7968.33331.15610068.33331.1561
The Ink Readers of Doi Saket7366.50001.09770066.50001.0977
If You Were a Dinosaur, My Love6554.33331.19630054.33331.1963
The water that falls on you from nowhere4334.83331.23440034.83331.2344
Dog's Body3838.00001.00000038.00001.0000
A Brief History of the Trans-Pacific Tunnel3734.33331.07770034.33331.0777
Silent Bridge, Pale Cascade3427.08331.25540027.08331.2554
The Best We Can3327.16671.21470027.16671.2147
Effigy Nights3322.58331.46130022.58331.4613
Laughter at the Academy2927.50001.05450027.50001.0545
The Dead Sea-Bottom Scrolls2825.00001.12000025.00001.1200
Selected Program Notes From the Retrospective Exhibition of Theresa Rosenberg Latimer2719.16671.40870019.16671.4087
Newly Listed Work2017.41671.14830017.41671.1483

Best Related WorkOrganicPure Slate VotesEPH
Wonderbook: The Illustrated Guide to Creating Imaginative Fiction8978.00001.14100078.00001.1410
Writing Excuses: Season 88377.83331.06640077.83331.0664
Queers Dig Time Lords: A Celebration of Doctor Who by the LGBTQ Fans Who Love It8071.50001.11890071.50001.1189
We have Always Fought: Challenging the Women, Cattle and Slaves narrative7761.83331.24530061.83331.2453
Speculative Fiction 2012: The best online reviews, essays and commentary (Volume 1)5239.83331.30540039.83331.3054
Afrofuturism: The World of Black Sci-Fi and Fantasy Culture4230.83331.36220030.83331.3622
The Monster Hunter International Employee Handbook and Roleplaying Game3837.50001.01330037.50001.0133
Training for War3426.83331.26710026.83331.2671
Stars Fall Home3229.83331.07260029.83331.0726
Archive of Our Own2615.83331.64210015.83331.6421
The Transgressive Iain Banks: Essays on a Writer Beyond Borders2315.91671.44500015.91671.4450
Tropes vs Women239.65002.3834009.65002.3834
Benchmarks Revisited2220.50001.07320020.50001.0732
The Mallet of Loving Correction2216.50001.33330016.50001.3333
Newly Listed Work1813.86671.29810013.86671.2981

Best Graphic StoryOrganicPure Slate VotesEPH
Saga vol. 2164153.16671.070700153.16671.0707
The Girl Who Loved Doctor Who3628.66671.25580028.66671.2558
XKCD: Time3631.16671.15510031.16671.1551
Meathouse Man2828.00001.00000028.00001.0000
Girl Genius/Agatha Heterodyne and The Sleeping City2824.50001.14290024.50001.1429
Locke & Key, Vol. 6: Alpha & Omega2417.00001.41180017.00001.4118
Girl Genius 12: Agatha Heterodyne and the Siege of Mechanicsburg2320.00001.15000020.00001.1500
Boxers and Saints2114.83331.41570014.83331.4157
Young Avengers Vol. 1: Style Substance2015.50001.29030015.50001.2903
Lazarus Vol. 1: Family1810.58331.70080010.58331.7008
The Unwritten Vol. 7: The Wound Mike1610.25001.56100010.25001.5610
Newly Listed Work1411.66671.20000011.66671.2000
Schlock Mercenary98.00001.125005967.00001.0149

Best Editor, Short FormOrganicPure Slate VotesEPH
John Joseph Adams182131.00001.389300131.00001.3893
Neil Clarke11567.16671.71220067.16671.7122
Ellen Datlow9660.50001.58680060.50001.5868
Jonathan Strahan9464.50001.45740064.50001.4574
Sheila Williams8655.10001.56080055.10001.5608
Lynne M. Thomas6338.86671.62090038.86671.6209
Ann Vandermeer4928.58331.71430028.58331.7143
Gardner Dozois4831.40001.52870031.40001.5287
Gordon Van Gelder4724.20001.94210024.20001.9421
George R. R. Martin2917.28331.67790017.28331.6779
Liz Gorinsky2510.58332.36220010.58332.3622
Jared Shurin2216.56671.32800016.56671.3280
Andy Cox2213.25001.66040013.25001.6604
Newly Listed Nominee2111.75001.78720011.75001.7872
Bryan Thomas Schmidt31.83331.636407778.83331.0148

Best Editor, Long FormOrganicPure Slate VotesEPH
Ginjer Buchanan118101.66671.160700101.66671.1607
Sheila Gilbert6354.33331.15950054.33331.1595
Liz Gorinsky5439.83331.35560039.83331.3556
Lee Harris4838.83331.23610038.83331.2361
Patrick Nielsen Hayden4731.83331.47640031.83331.4764
Devi Pillai4231.83331.31940031.83331.3194
Lou Anders4130.03331.36510030.03331.3651
David G. Hartwell3627.58331.30510027.58331.3051
Harriet McDougal3531.00001.12900031.00001.1290
Beth Meacham3416.53332.05650016.53332.0565
Simon Spanton3225.33331.26320025.33331.2632
Gillian Redfearn2915.75001.84130015.75001.8413
Toni Weisskopf1915.33331.23910150165.33331.0222
Jane Johnson1713.83331.22890013.83331.2289
Newly Listed Nominee166.35002.5197006.35002.5197

Best Professional ArtistOrganicPure Slate VotesEPH
Julie Dillon129104.33331.236400104.33331.2364
John Picacio10986.66671.25770086.66671.2577
John Harris5136.75001.38780036.75001.3878
Galen Dara5030.41671.64380030.41671.6438
Dan dos Santos4936.33331.34860036.33331.3486
Fiona Staples4932.41671.51160032.41671.5116
Joey Hi-Fi4836.91671.30020036.91671.3002
Michael Whelan3732.33331.14430032.33331.1443
Kurt Miller2726.00001.03850026.00001.0385
Bob Eggleton2721.66671.24620021.66671.2462
Jim Burns2616.66671.56000016.66671.5600
Chris McGrath2313.11671.75350013.11671.7535
Todd Lockwood2213.91671.58080013.91671.5808
Stephan Martiniere2111.08331.89470011.08331.8947
Aly Fell2010.41671.92000010.41671.9200

Best SemiprozineOrganicPure Slate VotesEPH
Strange Horizons161100.62501.600000100.62501.6000
Apex Magainze9752.70001.84060052.70001.8406
Beneath Ceaseless Skies8242.78331.91660042.78331.9166
Goblin Fruit2313.06671.76020013.06671.7602
Daily Science Fiction2310.96672.09730010.96672.0973
New York Review of Science Fiction2115.91671.31940015.91671.3194
Crossed Genres156.23332.4064006.23332.4064
Escape Pod128.25001.4545008.25001.4545

Best FanzineOrganicPure Slate VotesEPH
The Book Smugglers8355.66671.49100055.66671.4910
Journey Planet6158.66671.03980058.66671.0398
A Dribble of Ink5330.00001.76670030.00001.7667
Banana Wings4937.66671.30090037.66671.3009
The Drink Tank4929.08331.68480029.08331.6848
SF Signal2922.66671.27940022.66671.2794
File 7702815.61671.79300015.61671.7930
Lady Business2712.50002.16000012.50002.1600
Mad Genius Club2414.00001.71430014.00001.7143
Staffer's Book Review2311.48332.00290011.48332.0029
Newly Listed Work1514.25001.05260014.25001.0526
Elitist Book Reviews74.66671.50000100104.66671.0223

Best FancastOrganicPure Slate VotesEPH
Coode Street Podcast8059.83331.33700059.83331.3370
Galactic Suburbia6237.50001.65330037.50001.6533
Doctor Who:4836.08331.33030036.08331.3303
Skiffy and Fanty4127.16671.50920027.16671.5092
Tea and Jeopardy3522.41671.56130022.41671.5613
SF Signal Podcast3524.08331.45330024.08331.4533
The Writer and the Critic3512.95002.70270012.95002.7027
Sword and Laser2923.25001.24730023.25001.2473
Speculate - The Podcast for Writers, Readers and Fans2315.03331.52990015.03331.5299
Radio Free Skaro2310.43332.20450010.43332.2045
Star Ship Sofa2215.06671.46020015.06671.4602
Welcome to Night Vale1813.70001.31390013.70001.3139
Fanboy Planet Podcast188.91672.0187008.91672.0187
I Should Be Writing139.83331.3220009.83331.3220

Best FanwriterOrganicPure Slate VotesEPH
Abigail Nussbaum9463.61671.47760063.61671.4776
Foz Meadows8044.95001.77980044.95001.7798
Kameron Hurley7346.28331.57720046.28331.5772
Liz Bourke6838.28331.77620038.28331.7762
Mark Oshiro6252.86671.17280052.86671.1728
Justin Landon4325.28331.70070025.28331.7007
Steven H Silver4234.86671.20460034.86671.2046
Christopher J Garcia3930.33331.28570030.33331.2857
Natalie Luhrs3416.50002.06060016.50002.0606
James Nicoll3018.36671.63340018.36671.6334
Claire Brialey3015.20001.97370015.20001.9737
Cheryl Morgan2815.48331.80840015.48331.8084
Mark Plummer2722.83331.18250022.83331.1825
James Bacon2712.55002.15140012.55002.1514
Newly Listed Nominee1818.00001.00000018.00001.0000

Best Fan ArtistOrganicPure Slate VotesEPH
Steve Stiles4636.33331.26610036.33331.2661
Brad W. Foster3927.33331.42680027.33331.4268
Sarah Webb3827.33331.39020027.33331.3902
Spring Schoenhuth3529.66671.17980029.66671.1798
Mandie Manzano3120.33331.52460020.33331.5246
Maurine Starkey3018.50001.62160018.50001.6216
Ninni Aalto2826.00001.07690026.00001.0769
Randall Munroe2220.33331.08200020.33331.0820
Taral Wayne176.66672.5500006.66672.5500
Allie Strom157.41672.0225007.41672.0225
D. West156.83332.1951006.83332.1951
Sue Mason149.66671.4483009.66671.4483
Newly Listed Nominee1310.58331.22830010.58331.2283
Newly Listed Nominee108.83331.1321008.83331.1321

John W. Campbell Award for Best New WriterOrganicPure Slate VotesEPH
Sofia Samatar156114.58331.361500114.58331.3615
Max Gladstone146112.58331.296800112.58331.2968
Wesley Chu7762.91671.22380062.91671.2238
Benjanun Sriduangkaew7345.58331.60150045.58331.6015
Ramez Naam7050.16671.39530050.16671.3953
Helene Wecker5932.41671.82010032.41671.8201
Brooke Bolander5128.15001.81170028.15001.8117
Brian McClellan4431.41671.40050031.41671.4005
Adam Christopher4225.08331.67440025.08331.6744
John Chu4219.16672.19130019.16672.1913
Hugh Howey3722.20001.66670022.20001.6667
Marko Kloos3534.33331.019405387.33331.0076
Ann Leckie3225.41671.25900025.41671.2590
Leigh Bardugo3219.83331.61340019.83331.6134
Django Wexler3217.33331.84620017.33331.8462
Frank Chadwick86.00001.333305332.50001.8769

October 04, 2016

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