tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1390876285955310032.post2584807696265566221..comments2024-02-16T08:03:59.431-08:00Comments on Rocket Stack Rank: Analysis of Slate Voting for the 2016 HugosGreg Hullenderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16720604327299886491noreply@blogger.comBlogger28125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1390876285955310032.post-30790593990259579712016-05-02T21:30:08.616-07:002016-05-02T21:30:08.616-07:00These are all good points. They all tend to make t...These are all good points. They all tend to make the estimated number of slate voters smaller rather than larger. We'll get some clue if any of the people involved speaks up about having declined (or insists he/she did not decline). Greg Hullenderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16720604327299886491noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1390876285955310032.post-44184215290249593802016-05-02T20:25:58.278-07:002016-05-02T20:25:58.278-07:00EPH is slightly more complicated than it needs to ...EPH is slightly more complicated than it needs to be to do what it is supposed to do. (As is the actual voting system's handling of the "No Award" option.)<br /><br />First I have heard of the 3SV proposal. Mathematically, I am a fan of introducing more stages in terms of tuning results, but I would worry about participation rates - it's generally true that voters tend to participate at lower rates the more times they have to vote.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16191074051360069718noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1390876285955310032.post-48957248271315770432016-05-02T20:17:27.575-07:002016-05-02T20:17:27.575-07:00The minima column is based on the assumption that ...The minima column is based on the assumption that at least one slate candidate that made the ballot is of sufficiently low quality, or of sufficiently controversial nature, that no non-slate voter would vote for it. This is a very tricky assumption even outside of Drama-Long.<br /><br />I will actually point to the Sad Puppies list and say that if we see a nomination on the Sad Puppies list, it has support outside of Vox Day's directed slate, of at least a small number of voters. On the other side of the spectrum, if a work comes out of Castalia House, we might be able to assume nomination of it is sufficiently controversial that nobody outside of a slate would vote for that work.<br /><br />I do not think it applies to the novel category, for example. Both RP-nom are SP-echoed. In the novella category, all four RP-nom are SP-echoed (and the fifth nom is SP-nom, displacing someone unlikely to decline nomination). In spite of the sweep, I am not convinced it applies to Graphic Novel; these were "safer" picks by VD that were not, AFAIK, connected to Castalia.<br /><br />At the end of the day, I would include the categories of novelette, short story, related work, editor (long) with VD himself, and definitely fanzine (Castalia House blog) as being categories where the assumpion should apply. The peak on this is 158 for fanzine; which leaves me slightly skeptical, as the 2015 nomination statistics show significantly higher numbers of ballots (and correspondingly higher thresholds) for novelettes and short stories than fanzines. (I understanding including 2015 data into the model is difficult, since it isn't the "control" condition of slate-free voting.)<br /><br />That would also make sense of the novelette category maximum; I doubt that Moeller would have declined nomination, given that his work was published through Castalia House. That would bring us to an estimate of ~150 or so slate voters.<br /><br />Best Editor (Long) seems a very likely candidate for withdrawals. Fan Writer seems unusual given it's a Castalia House person who didn't make it; I think what may actually be the case is that the "slate voters" were not as disciplined down-ballot in the fan categories. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16191074051360069718noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1390876285955310032.post-53151974663955672872016-05-02T04:47:42.750-07:002016-05-02T04:47:42.750-07:00I voted against 4/6. My maths is good enough to wo...I voted against 4/6. My maths is good enough to work out that this is not the solution. Others may need to see the numbers presented before they are fully convinced.Junehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08645772819461388524noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1390876285955310032.post-24650210941611892132016-05-01T07:58:37.143-07:002016-05-01T07:58:37.143-07:00While the focus on these Hugo reforms is how they&...While the focus on these Hugo reforms is how they'd prevent slate voting from dominating the nomination process, I also think the reforms will make the process much fairer and open to more quality nominees. In the long run that will benefit the Hugo Awards even if slates continue to try to jam certain nominees into the final ballot.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14269117684899640062noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1390876285955310032.post-38482438401658796002016-05-01T06:56:12.674-07:002016-05-01T06:56:12.674-07:00My worry about doing that for 4/6 is it amounts to...My worry about doing that for 4/6 is it amounts to giving instructions on how to construct a winning slate. Perhaps I'm wrong in thinking they can't figure it out on their own.Greg Hullenderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16720604327299886491noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1390876285955310032.post-13627619574872340242016-05-01T06:54:18.029-07:002016-05-01T06:54:18.029-07:00They both passed. I'm playing with the combina...They both passed. I'm playing with the combination now. At first glance, it doesn't make a lot of difference compared to EPH alone. You get about 35 slate items on the ballot. Of course you have a bigger ballot (102 vs. 85). This is the super-optimistic analysis of it, though. 4/6 would weaken EPH somewhat, but it's hard to quantify exactly how much. Greg Hullenderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16720604327299886491noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1390876285955310032.post-25823492276588289322016-05-01T06:50:29.698-07:002016-05-01T06:50:29.698-07:00Note that I'm only trying to count the hard-co...Note that I'm only trying to count the hard-core slate voters--the ones who voted all slate items in all categories. There must be more people who really did use the slate as a recommendation list. (Otherwise the slate would always get 5 or zero in every category owing to the rule for ties.) If you include both the hard core and the "casual" group, I think you could argue for as many as 400. I don't think 750 is realistic. Greg Hullenderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16720604327299886491noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1390876285955310032.post-67607913648262333002016-05-01T05:14:32.182-07:002016-05-01T05:14:32.182-07:00I'm trying to remember if 4/6 is also up for a...I'm trying to remember if 4/6 is also up for a vote at Worldcon this fall. Was EPH the only rule change passed last year or did 4/6 also pass? If so, perhaps a combination of the two?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14269117684899640062noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1390876285955310032.post-90743839875544549832016-05-01T05:12:55.016-07:002016-05-01T05:12:55.016-07:00What I require is a technical explanation of how t...What I require is a technical explanation of how the mechanics for EPH would work on slate nominations as compare with organic nominations.<br /><br />You have already partially done this in this write-up.<br /><br />As for 4/6 - very easy to get around and it will still require large number of organic nominations to surpass slate numbers, but I too, am very interested in a theoretical outcome for this option.Junehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08645772819461388524noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1390876285955310032.post-26984166996937247952016-05-01T03:55:13.495-07:002016-05-01T03:55:13.495-07:00Vox his saying his estimate of his numbers is 750....Vox his saying his estimate of his numbers is 750. Hard to see how that could work even if their discipline was weak.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1390876285955310032.post-91079254842593530132016-04-30T21:32:22.079-07:002016-04-30T21:32:22.079-07:00I'm doing an analysis of 4/6 as we speak. The ...I'm doing an analysis of 4/6 as we speak. The preliminary numbers don't look very good. It appears that the slates could almost completely negate the effect of 4/6. That is, under the current system, the slates could have taken all but 15 out of 85 nominees. Under 4/6, it seems that they'd still take all but 17 out of 102 if they split it right. We'll see if that result stands up to further examination. (It's real easy to make mistakes with this stuff.) <br /><br />June: I'll think about an EPH writeup. So many other people have done them, I'm not sure how much I can improve on that, but maybe there's a different angle to take with it.Greg Hullenderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16720604327299886491noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1390876285955310032.post-81356232305710802812016-04-30T19:10:12.844-07:002016-04-30T19:10:12.844-07:00It is possible a few of the organic nominees surpa...It is possible a few of the organic nominees surpass the slate nominees in regards their nomination numbers.<br /><br />Are you able to do a write-up at some point about EPH ?<br />I understood it enough to vote for it at the WSFS Business meeting but the vote was close.<br /><br />I suspect part of the problem is not understanding EPH at all. One really needs to be into maths to fully understand it. Junehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08645772819461388524noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1390876285955310032.post-29755659696500115022016-04-30T15:31:54.257-07:002016-04-30T15:31:54.257-07:00How would this work with 4/6? Less slate penalty, ...How would this work with 4/6? Less slate penalty, but with more nominees and smaller slates. How many more non-slate finalists would we get? Personally I don't really care about 'vandalism', I just want plenty of good non-slated choices.<br /><br />In August we can actually amend the 4/6 numbers to whatever numbers we want. So we should still be thinking about what the ideal numbers are.Ian Monroehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16953610792430204523noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1390876285955310032.post-88468744613071059222016-04-30T06:47:05.193-07:002016-04-30T06:47:05.193-07:00And I'm very happy to see that someone actuall...And I'm very happy to see that someone actually read the mathematical analysis!Greg Hullenderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16720604327299886491noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1390876285955310032.post-40566166335260891622016-04-29T21:23:22.913-07:002016-04-29T21:23:22.913-07:00This is really great analysis! We'll know the ...This is really great analysis! We'll know the number for sure when we get the vote totals for Vox Day in late august, right? <br /><br />As a mathematician I love to see an application of Newton's Method applied to science fiction!Ron Buckmirehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16211462727803455291noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1390876285955310032.post-84281602738407880022016-04-29T19:58:45.824-07:002016-04-29T19:58:45.824-07:00Thanks! And thanks for the kind words. It's be...Thanks! And thanks for the kind words. It's been great seeing your comments on the site--we'd love to see more discussion here, and a few pioneers really help.<br /><br />EPH is that it removes some of the advantage from slate voting (intentional or otherwise) and should put more variety into the results. What it doesn't do is prevent vandalism. An honest slate probably does contain a work or two that voters should get to evaluate, so it's okay to let some through to the ballot. But to deal with vandalism, you have to stop it all.<br /><br />I like Kevin Standlee's "3SV" proposal. Done right, I think EPH can deal with normal slating while 3SV will deal with vandalism. Greg Hullenderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16720604327299886491noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1390876285955310032.post-91017061318534037232016-04-29T19:49:06.158-07:002016-04-29T19:49:06.158-07:00I attended the WSFS meetings (8 hours worth) at Sa...I attended the WSFS meetings (8 hours worth) at Sasquan. I am guessing you and Eric where there too ?<br /><br />They talked about E Pluribus Hugo, but not enough imo. E Pluribus Hugo was designed to act as a fair democratic voting system. It was never meant to eliminate slate-nominated works, just reduce the slate impact. Meaning the most popular of the slate-works would still get on the final ballot.<br /><br />Thanks for explaining the bit about E Pluribus Hugo that was not well-explained at WSFS. I understood as far as the allocation of the points went, but as to how that worked against slates, that was far-more complicated. <br /><br />One thing that should be pointed out - nominating only 1 item so that it gets all your points will not work. It will not improve the chances of your 1 item getting onto the final ballot.<br /><br />More fans nominating did help. For what it is worth, I used this site extensively to find works, read works and make nominations for all 3 of the Hugo Short Fiction categories. I also nominated Rocket Stack Rank in the Best Fanzine category.Junehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08645772819461388524noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1390876285955310032.post-83903908740440799682016-04-29T19:10:54.131-07:002016-04-29T19:10:54.131-07:00Correct. However, as soon as one of the slated nom...Correct. However, as soon as one of the slated nominees is eliminated, the other four each have 205/4=51.25 points. And when three remain, they have 205/3=68.33 points. At that point, they can break into some of the categories. Remember also that although points are used for ranking in EPH, comparisons are still done based on the actual number of votes, so if a slated work with 41 points (and 205 votes) is compared with an organic work with 42 points (and 42 votes) then the slated work will win. Slated works generally get eliminated because EPH forces them to compete with each other.Greg Hullenderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16720604327299886491noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1390876285955310032.post-39320356838421321812016-04-29T18:30:36.160-07:002016-04-29T18:30:36.160-07:00If I understand EPH correctly. And 205 slate voter...If I understand EPH correctly. And 205 slate voters vote the same 5 nominees. Those nominees only receive 41 points each. If the top 5 non-slated nominees each get 42+ nominations (and they are the only noms in their category on their ballots). They will each have 42+ points, completely blocking the slated nominees.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07548028179918019587noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1390876285955310032.post-7224860556238404092016-04-29T18:01:15.549-07:002016-04-29T18:01:15.549-07:00No, there's no assumption as to how many nomin...No, there's no assumption as to how many nominations each voter makes. The only error on that score is that it doesn't account for the fact that a voter may not vote for the same thing twice in the same category, but that's a very small source of error. Did you look at the detailed summary?<br /><br />It does assume that the slate voters vote for all the slate nominees (usually 5), but there really is no special assumption about how many things organic voters put on their ballots. Greg Hullenderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16720604327299886491noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1390876285955310032.post-49693093466526115472016-04-29T16:02:02.488-07:002016-04-29T16:02:02.488-07:00It seems like your EPH calculations assume that cu...It seems like your EPH calculations assume that current non-slate voters make five nominations in every category and would continue to do so under EPH. If current non-slate voters who vote in cats like Best Fan Artist typically only nominate one or two artists on their ballots while slate voters are nominating five artists (assumption I know). And we assume this trend continues next year with EPH (huge assumption). Then slate voters would be completely blocked out of the nominations. I'm pretty sure the reality is somewhere between that hypothetical and your assessment.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07548028179918019587noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1390876285955310032.post-88012903486976935612016-04-29T12:20:56.837-07:002016-04-29T12:20:56.837-07:00That should happen with 100% confidence. :-) Just ...That should happen with 100% confidence. :-) Just give the admins a couple of days to contact the nominee and get him/her to accept the nomination.Greg Hullenderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16720604327299886491noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1390876285955310032.post-18138561122731230722016-04-29T12:17:59.559-07:002016-04-29T12:17:59.559-07:00Any chance of an "organically" nominated...Any chance of an "organically" nominated story replacing the Thomas Mays one?dolphintornseahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16299220544443289606noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1390876285955310032.post-23080176346689867672016-04-29T08:53:56.353-07:002016-04-29T08:53:56.353-07:00Thanks! Actually, the error was that I wrote "...Thanks! Actually, the error was that I wrote "novella" when I meant to write "novelette." I've corrected it.<br /><br />The best estimate for the organic result for Novella was between 360 and 310, so you'd expect one to get on the list without needing to assume someone declined. Greg Hullenderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16720604327299886491noreply@blogger.com